A storm is brewing right now. It is in the restless hearts of African youths dispersed as they are across the continent. Sub Saharan Africa is amongst the most segmented land masses on the globe as far as politics and economies are concerned. 44 countries in a land mass twice the size of the USA and a population of 400 million souls.
Tahrir Square during the Arab Spring. What is Kenya's Political and Business Class going to do about these youths?
It remains a difficult market because of the 28 cities in Africa with more than 500,000 people only 16 are in Sub Saharan Africa. Incidentally 9 are in Nigeria alone. Markets being small as they are foreign private capital will continue to give a wide berth to Sub Saharan Africa until the 2020′s. This is why.
Sub Saharan Africa is growing, albeit in the wrong way. Cities are increasing in population at rates that are unsustainable. Nairobi is the case in point and it forms a good example of the kind of situations that many Sub Saharan countries will face in the decade 2011-2021.
Urban Culture in Africa is in flux. The church, tribes and the government schools system have become overrun by new cultural forms. In Kenya the HIV scourge continues with 1.5 million people living with the virus. Additionally there is a sustained apathy towards using condoms and the sale of over the counter emergency contraceptives forms a strong revenue category for many a small pharmacy in the sprawling and crowded neighbourhoods in the city.
The youths are crystallizing cultural forms geared towards an instantaneous satisfaction of their pent-up desires. Casual sex is on the rise and across most neighbourhoods youth are continually engaged in binge drinking to run away from the societies indifference to their get-rich-now desires.
Work ethics are in the doldrums as are school graduation rates across elementary, secondary and college levels. The Secondary school averages in math for the 2010 exams was 21.1%. A solid E. The Kenyan education system continues to churn philosophers and entertainers amidst politicians and activists.
What an appropriate role model!
In all this enters the cultural forms that they attend to. HipHop, a music genre popularised in the Sprawling low-class Neighbourhood of Bronx New York after the Mayor Roosevelt created this underclass area by relocating a major highway through New York. On the heels of HipHop is Dance Hall music from the sexually rebellious Jamaican Islands that captures the current sexual rebellion spreading like wild-fire amongst young women in urban Kenya.
In this urban cauldron a rebellious spirit continues to brew. Young women want to be free to choose their lovers and their main focus on economically succesful candidates continues to grow. Young men also yearn to be economically free and the hurdles that they face, namely the structural nature of Kenya’s economy continue to hold them back.
It seems that “Fuck the World” is their new motto as they continue to stir the rebellious spirit in these urban populations. The urban population growth rate is higher than the national average of 6.7% (See OECD Africa Report). Enter the 2017 elections and the Arab Spring.
With the current inflation rates and a historically static income growth rate it is easy to project that as of mid 2016 the economic stress in urban Kenya will be untenable. Real food shortages, real energy shortages including empty pump in fuel stations…a perfect storm for the revolution that is coming in the 2017 and 2022 election years.
A quick glance at the population figures released in the 2009 census puts the youth numbers of kids aged 0-4 in 2009 at 5.9 million. Each 4 year age group after the 0-4 years group has 5 million children up to the 20-24 age group. These are 17+ million adults as of 2017 who are between 18-39. Of these upwards of 20% will be in urban areas. (See this article for more on this)
And what do you think they want. Internet penetration via mobile phones continues to grow and what this leads to is an informed and agitated youth population. Sub Saharan Africa is a political time bomb come 2017 and 2022. The structural and asymmetric nature of the economy that has led to a weak criminal justice system, a bankrupt property law system and an inflated and wealthy tribal royal family/political and business class will not change by 2017. It cannot. Therefore the youth unemployment in Kenya, Nairobi and most of Sub Saharan Africa will be far higher than the 25% rates in the Arab World. An Arab Spring like scenario is inevitable unless real structural change occurs.
Vybz Kartel is a Jamaican Entertainer who is now a wanted felon having escaped Jail in what can only be described as a scene from prison break. Lil Wayne is an American rapper from the Yong Money stable who is arguably the most successful HipHop artist since Jay-z. The culture that these two artist advocate, represent and embody is now! The urban youths in low-income Nairobi identify with Vybz Kartel and the dance hall artists due to the similar ghetto like neighborhoods that these artists hail from. Well educated middle-income Nairobi youths identify with Lil Wayne and their rebellious and felony inclined selves is well-known in corporate circles in Kenya. Kenya’s urban youths are stirring and growing in numbers. Contraception will not stall the growth rate, the numbers are growing and politically explosive. I wonder where our Tahrir Square will be?
